Fri, May 15
Race 7
Alw 12500s
Post: 3:50 · 6f · Dirt · $60K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #6 MARGOINABUBBLEBATH (EP, QSP 7)
- #8 SASSY AND BOLD (EP, QSP 6)
- #2 POP ROX (EP, QSP 4)
- #1 CHAPARRITA (EP, QSP 4)
- #5 TALKIN IN CURSIVE (EP, QSP 2)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 6, 5, 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$122.33
mean $134.42
Expected ROI
+0.6%
net $0.04
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [6, 5, 8] — hits 4.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $122 (mean $134; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6, 5
B Contenders
8, 2, 4
C Value-edge longshots
7, 1
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 4.3% | $18.61 | -80% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 8.6% | $18.61 | -77% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 8.5% | $18.61 | -77% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 13.1% | $25.49 | -68% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 16.4% | $21.04 | -72% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AEPMARGOINABUBBLEBATH | 3.5-1 | 3.3-1 | 79.4 | 17% | 50% | ▼-7% |
| 5 | AEPTALKIN IN CURSIVE | 4.5-1 | 6.3-1 | 79.7 | 16% | 47% | ·+0% |
| 8 | BEPSASSY AND BOLD | 12-1 | 15-1 | 78.1 | 16% | 46% | ▲+26% |
| 2 | BEPPOP ROX | 1.2-1 | 1.8-1 | 77.4 | 14% | 44% | ▼-56% |
| 4 | BSMIRANDA'S ROCKY | 6.0-1 | 8.7-1 | 78.4 | 14% | 43% | ▲+7% |
| 7 | CPPROTOMAGIC | 20-1 | 29-1 | 75.6 | 12% | 39% | ▲+26% |
| 1 | CEPCHAPARRITA | 15-1 | 19-1 | 74.0 | 10% | 32% | ▲+17% |
| 3 | SCREGLADRIEL | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Fri, May 15 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.