Sun, May 10
Race 2
Clm 16000n2l
Post: 1:15 · 1.06m · Dirt · $36K purse · 8 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 8 of 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #5 HALEAKALA (EP, QSP 8)
- #6 THEORETICALLY (EP, QSP 5)
- #7 THEPRINCESSFACTOR (E, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 5, 7, 2, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$55.99
mean $84.73
Expected ROI
-32.6%
net $-1.96
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [5, 7, 2, 4] — hits 4.8% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $56 (mean $85; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
5, 7
B Contenders
2, 4, 1
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 5.4% | $44.40 | -58% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 8.2% | $83.30 | -32% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 9.3% | $58.37 | -49% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 11.8% | $83.30 | -38% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 17.2% | $65.32 | -45% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AEPHALEAKALA | 5.0-1 | 4.9-1 | ·5.0-1 | 75.1 | 18% | 51% | ▲+8% |
| 7 | AETHEPRINCESSFACTOR | 2.0-1 | 1.2-1 | ·2.0-1 | 71.1 | 18% | 50% | ▼-35% |
| 2 | BPMUSTANG LADY | 6.0-1 | 6.7-1 | ↓4.0-1 | 74.1 | 16% | 46% | ▼-5% |
| 4 | BPFIREBIRD SUITE | 10-1 | 11-1 | ·8.0-1 | 71.2 | 13% | 39% | ▲+11% |
| 1 | BSZEN YOGA | 8.0-1 | 8.8-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 67.7 | 12% | 36% | ·-0% |
| 8 | PAUTHENTIC ANGEL | 3.0-1 | 3.8-1 | ↑5.0-1 | 69.0 | 10% | 31% | ▼-11% |
| 3 | STIZ SALTY | 20-1 | 37-1 | ↓9.0-1 | 68.5 | 9% | 28% | ·+2% |
| 6 | EPTHEORETICALLY | 8.0-1 | 13-1 | ↑16-1 | 59.6 | 6% | 19% | ·+4% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Sun, May 10 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.