Sun, May 10
Race 3
Alw 30000s
Post: 1:44 · 1.06m · Dirt · $62K purse · 5 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 5 of 5 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
5 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #8 THEA (E, QSP 8)
- #5 THATSALRIGHTMAMA (E, QSP 8)
- #6 GAL CAPONE (EP, QSP 6)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
Field too small for a trifecta
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PNEXT UP | 2.5-1 | 2.6-1 | ↓1.5-1 | 82.7 | 30% | 78% | ▼-22% |
| 8 | ETHEA | 6.0-1 | 7.8-1 | ↓2.5-1 | 78.3 | 23% | 68% | ▼-5% |
| 5 | ETHATSALRIGHTMAMA | 3.0-1 | 3.3-1 | ↓2.0-1 | 78.2 | 21% | 65% | ▼-20% |
| 7 | SPOEMA | 20-1 | 24-1 | ↓7.0-1 | 78.1 | 18% | 59% | ▲+27% |
| 6 | EPGAL CAPONE | 30-1 | 37-1 | ↓9.0-1 | 67.7 | 8% | 31% | ▲+5% |
| 2 | SCREPHELLO ANGEL | 3.5-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | SCRPPLANET CLARE | 8.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | SCRPCOUNTRY CLUB | 4.5-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Sun, May 10 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.