Sun, May 10
Race 1
Md 40000
Post: 12:45 · 4.5f · Dirt · $62K purse · 8 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 8 of 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersUnprojectable
8 of 8 runners have no BRIS run-style code (likely first-time starters) — pace shape can't be called.
8 of 8 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 6, 8, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$71.22
mean $93.08
Expected ROI
-45.3%
net $-2.72
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [6, 8, 5] — hits 3.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $71 (mean $93; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6
B Contenders
8, 5, 4
C Value-edge longshots
3, 7
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 3.6% | $12.27 | -84% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 6.9% | $12.27 | -79% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 7.0% | $28.76 | -80% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 6.6% | $17.32 | -81% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 11.0% | $36.38 | -74% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | ASPEECH AND DRAMA | 2.5-1 | 1.8-1 | ↓0.8-1 | 68.2 | 19% | 53% | ▼-47% |
| 8 | BSWEET MARY | 1.8-1 | 2.0-1 | ↑4.0-1 | 67.2 | 15% | 45% | ▼-6% |
| 5 | BYALINA | 10-1 | 15-1 | ↑27-1 | 67.3 | 12% | 36% | ▲+27% |
| 4 | BTHREE SOCK SADIE | 8.0-1 | 8.9-1 | ↓5.0-1 | 67.2 | 12% | 36% | ▼-7% |
| 7 | CWINE'S MISTRESS | 6.0-1 | 7.9-1 | ↑14-1 | 66.1 | 12% | 36% | ▲+19% |
| 3 | CSR SEVENTYONE | 12-1 | 17-1 | ↑25-1 | 67.0 | 12% | 36% | ▲+26% |
| 1 | I KNOW NOTHING | 4.5-1 | 5.9-1 | ↑6.0-1 | 66.5 | 11% | 34% | ·-2% |
| 2 | ANGEL LIFE | 30-1 | 42-1 | ↓18-1 | 56.3 | 8% | 24% | ▲+11% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Sun, May 10 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.