Sat, May 2
Race 11
TurfClsc-G1
Post: 5:39 · 1.13m · Turf · $1.50M purse · 9 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 9 of 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #1 CORRUPTION (EP, QSP 7)
- #2 DASHMAN (EP, QSP 6)
- #5 MERCANTE (EP, QSP 2)
1 of 9 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
6-horse A,B,C box on posts 7, 6, 4, 1, 5, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$120.00
120 combos
Hit prob
37.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$245.47
mean $370.17
Expected ROI
+16.5%
net $19.84
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 6-horse A,B,C box on posts [7, 6, 4, 1, 5, 2] — hits 37.8% of simulated runs
- · At $120 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $245 (mean $370; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
7, 6
B Contenders
4, 1, 5
C Value-edge longshots
2
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-horse box | $60.00 | 25.9% | $142.32 | +3% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 5.9% | $116.27 | +4% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $24.00 | 9.4% | $139.94 | -1% |
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 3.1% | $116.27 | -28% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 9.3% | $116.27 | -11% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | ASGOLD PHOENIX | 10-1 | 10-1 | ↓5.0-1 | 94.5 | 16% | 47% | ·+4% |
| 6 | APRHETORICAL | 2.5-1 | 2.1-1 | ·2.5-1 | 94.6 | 16% | 46% | ▼-27% |
| 4 | BPPROGRAM TRADING | 4.0-1 | 4.5-1 | ↑6.0-1 | 93.1 | 13% | 38% | ·+2% |
| 1 | BEPCORRUPTION | 15-1 | 15-1 | ↓8.0-1 | 93.1 | 13% | 38% | ▲+10% |
| 5 | BEPMERCANTE | 12-1 | 12-1 | ↑18-1 | 93.4 | 12% | 36% | ▲+23% |
| 3 | SASBURY PARK | 8.0-1 | 7.4-1 | ↓5.0-1 | 90.1 | 11% | 35% | ▼-8% |
| 9 | PTEST SCORE | 3.5-1 | 3.9-1 | ·4.0-1 | 93.2 | 10% | 32% | ▼-19% |
| 2 | CEPDASHMAN | 20-1 | 24-1 | ·23-1 | 89.7 | 7% | 22% | ▲+12% |
| 10 | MAKE ME KING | 6.0-1 | 7.0-1 | ·6.0-1 | 69.7 | 2% | 6% | ▼-30% |
| 8 | SCRPASTRONOMER | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 11 · Sat, May 2 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.