John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R11

PP 4

PROGRAM TRADING

R '20 · LOPE DE VEGA × DREAMLIKE

Trainer: BROWN CHAD C · Jockey: GAFFALIONE TYLER

Today's prediction

93.1

Speed fig

38.4%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +8.60
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +2.48
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.84
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.21
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.94

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Track Code -0.74
  • Num Career Starts -0.28
  • BRIS Mud Pedigree -0.21
  • Trainer Meet Itm Rate -0.17
  • Weight Change From Last -0.12

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-21 FG 1.13m Turf 3 2.0 101 96 2w;asked 3-4w;outkick
2026-01-24 GP 1.13m Turf 5 1.5 91 99 Inside bid; flattened
2025-11-01 DMR 1m Turf 10 5.3 89 100 Blocked; steadied 1/8
2025-10-04 KEE 1m Turf 2 0.8 100 100 2p;4p upper;rallied
2025-08-29 SAR 1.06m Turf 2 0.3 92 95 5w upper; repelled
2024-06-08 SAR 1.19m Turf 5 2.5 102 101 3w turns;chsd;missd3rd
2024-05-04 CD 1.13m Turf 1 0.1 92 101 Bobble;ins;bid1/8;duel
2023-12-02 DMR 1.13m Turf 1 0.3 101 97 Gained2-3w;led;held
2023-09-09 CNL 1.13m Turf 2 1.3 95 91 Wide trns;led;outfinis
2023-08-05 SAR 1.19m Turf 1 0.1 101 96 2p;5p1/4;headed;gamely