Sat, May 2
Race 12
KyDerby-G1
Post: 6:57 · 1.25m · Dirt · $5.00M purse · 22 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 19 of 22 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
22 runnersHot pace
10 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #24 CORONA DE ORO (EP, QSP 8)
- #8 SO HAPPY (EP, QSP 7)
- #14 POTENTE (EP, QSP 6)
- #23 ROBUSTA (EP, QSP 6)
- #4 LITMUS TEST (EP, QSP 6)
- #12 CHIEF WALLABEE (EP, QSP 5)
- #16 PAVLOVIAN (EP, QSP 5)
- #2 ALBUS (EP, QSP 5)
- #21 GREAT WHITE (EP, QSP 5)
- #3 INTREPIDO (EP, QSP 4)
3 of 22 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 1, 15, 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
0.3%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$457.08
mean $469.81
Expected ROI
-73.8%
net $-4.43
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1, 15, 8] — hits 0.3% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $457 (mean $470; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1, 15
B Contenders
8, 6, 12
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 0.3% | $417.06 | -80% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 0.7% | $430.34 | -75% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 0.7% | $338.07 | -80% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 1.0% | $417.06 | -74% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 1.3% | $430.34 | -74% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASRENEGADE | 4.0-1 | 3.3-1 | ↓2.5-1 | 91.3 | 8% | 23% | ▼-50% |
| 15 | ASEMERGING MARKET | 15-1 | 11-1 | ↓9.0-1 | 89.0 | 8% | 22% | ·-3% |
| 8 | BEPSO HAPPY | 15-1 | 14-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 90.8 | 7% | 22% | ▼-15% |
| 6 | BPCOMMANDMENT | 6.0-1 | 5.5-1 | ·6.0-1 | 91.2 | 7% | 22% | ▼-15% |
| 12 | BEPCHIEF WALLABEE | 8.0-1 | 9.1-1 | ·7.0-1 | 91.9 | 7% | 20% | ▼-12% |
| 19 | SGOLDEN TEMPO | 30-1 | 28-1 | ·23-1 | 88.9 | 6% | 18% | ▲+8% |
| 14 | EPPOTENTE | 20-1 | 21-1 | ·18-1 | 88.6 | 6% | 18% | ·+5% |
| 20 | SFULLEFFORT | 20-1 | 20-1 | — | 88.1 | 6% | 18% | ▲+6% |
| 18 | PFURTHER ADO | 6.0-1 | 6.7-1 | ·5.0-1 | 91.2 | 6% | 17% | ▼-25% |
| 13 | PSILENT TACTIC | 20-1 | 23-1 | — | 86.6 | 5% | 15% | ·+3% |
| 3 | EPINTREPIDO | 50-1 | 40-1 | ↓8.0-1 | 86.9 | 5% | 14% | ▼-15% |
| 11 | PINCREDIBOLT | 20-1 | 22-1 | ·24-1 | 84.4 | 4% | 13% | ·+2% |
| 16 | EPPAVLOVIAN | 30-1 | 41-1 | ↑53-1 | 83.2 | 4% | 11% | ▲+7% |
| 2 | EPALBUS | 30-1 | 31-1 | ↓4.0-1 | 83.8 | 4% | 11% | ▼-40% |
| 22 | SOCELLI | 50-1 | 48-1 | ↑73-1 | 82.8 | 3% | 10% | ▲+7% |
| 23 | EPROBUSTA | 50-1 | 53-1 | ↑74-1 | 83.2 | 3% | 10% | ▲+6% |
| 4 | EPLITMUS TEST | 50-1 | 48-1 | ↓28-1 | 86.7 | 3% | 9% | ·+1% |
| 24 | EPCORONA DE ORO | 50-1 | 44-1 | — | 78.9 | 3% | 9% | ·+4% |
| 21 | EPGREAT WHITE | 50-1 | 53-1 | ↓22-1 | 79.8 | 2% | 7% | ·-4% |
| 17 | SIX SPEED | 50-1 | 41-1 | ·40-1 | 68.7 | 1% | 3% | ·-3% |
| 10 | WONDER DEAN | 30-1 | 36-1 | ·27-1 | 68.9 | 1% | 3% | ▼-6% |
| 7 | DANON BOURBON | 20-1 | 24-1 | ↓13-1 | 68.4 | 1% | 3% | ▼-15% |
| 5 | SCRSRIGHT TO PARTY | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | SCRPTHE PUMA | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 12 · Sat, May 2 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.