Sat, May 2
Race 10
CD-G1
Post: 4:50 · 7f · Dirt · $1.00M purse · 11 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 11 of 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #11 POINT DUME (E, QSP 8)
- #3 MACHO MUSIC (E, QSP 6)
- #6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE (EP, QSP 4)
- #2 CORNUCOPIAN (EP, QSP 4)
- #5 DISRUPTOR (EP, QSP 2)
- #1 DISCO TIME (EP, QSP 1)
1 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 6, 2, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.3%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$63.98
mean $66.40
Expected ROI
-74.9%
net $-4.49
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [6, 2, 7] — hits 2.3% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $64 (mean $66; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
6, 2
B Contenders
7, 5, 4
C Value-edge longshots
3, 11
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 2.2% | $54.47 | -78% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 4.0% | $54.47 | -68% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 4.3% | $63.98 | -74% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $30.00 | 8.0% | $86.46 | -40% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 5.7% | $54.47 | -61% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AEPKNIGHTSBRIDGE | 1.8-1 | 1.6-1 | ·1.6-1 | 97.3 | 14% | 40% | ▼-58% |
| 2 | AEPCORNUCOPIAN | 3.5-1 | 2.8-1 | ↑5.0-1 | 97.3 | 14% | 40% | ·-3% |
| 7 | BPIMAGINATION | 6.0-1 | 5.8-1 | ·7.0-1 | 96.7 | 13% | 37% | ▲+5% |
| 5 | BEPDISRUPTOR | 8.0-1 | 6.6-1 | ·7.0-1 | 94.6 | 11% | 34% | ·+2% |
| 4 | BPHALL OF FAME | 20-1 | 23-1 | ↑34-1 | 94.7 | 10% | 30% | ▲+23% |
| 11 | CEPOINT DUME | 15-1 | 16-1 | ↑30-1 | 94.6 | 8% | 26% | ▲+18% |
| 1 | EPDISCO TIME | 6.0-1 | 6.5-1 | ·5.0-1 | 94.2 | 8% | 25% | ▼-18% |
| 3 | CEMACHO MUSIC | 30-1 | 38-1 | ↑45-1 | 92.0 | 8% | 25% | ▲+19% |
| 9 | SCRAZY MASON | 15-1 | 19-1 | ↑28-1 | 93.9 | 7% | 21% | ▲+12% |
| 10 | PBANISHING | 12-1 | 12-1 | ↑25-1 | 91.2 | 6% | 18% | ▲+8% |
| 8 | T O ELVIS | 30-1 | 30-1 | ↓5.0-1 | 70.7 | 1% | 5% | ▼-38% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 10 · Sat, May 2 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.