John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R5

PP 11

ROYAL GUARD

C '23 · ESSENTIAL QUALITY × COBB HILL

Trainer: COX BRAD H · Jockey: ORTIZ IRAD JR

Today's prediction

75.7

Speed fig

27.0%

In-the-money

Last 2 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.25
  • Today Track Code +0.89
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.23
  • Days Since Last Race +0.20
  • Weight Change From Last +0.18

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.05
  • Today Field Size -0.79
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.54
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.49
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.48

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2025-08-31 SAR 1.06m Turf 4 1.0 75 80 Bumped st; mild kick
2025-07-27 SAR 7f Dirt 3 8.3 73 81 Brush gate; improved