Derby 2026
← Race

PP 11

ROYAL GUARD

C '23 · ESSENTIAL QUALITY × COBB HILL

Trainer: COX BRAD H · Jockey: ORTIZ IRAD JR

Today's prediction

77.2

Speed fig

18.5%

In-the-money

Last 2 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 83.2 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Days Since Last Race +0.80
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 +0.17
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 +0.15
  • BRIS Dist Pedigree +0.12
  • Starts Last 60d +0.04

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -2.87
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.15
  • Max Speed Fig Career -1.12
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.95
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.48

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2025-08-31 SAR 1.06m Turf 4 1.0 75 80 Bumped st; mild kick
2025-07-27 SAR 7f Dirt 3 8.3 73 81 Brush gate; improved