Fri, May 1
Race 4
Md Sp Wt
Post: 2:00 · 7f · Dirt · $120K purse · 11 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 11 of 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersUnprojectable
6 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (likely first-time starters) — pace shape can't be called.
Projected speed
- #13 TRAMUNTANA (E, QSP 4)
- #5 GERBER DAISY (EP, QSP 4)
6 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
5-horse A,B,C box on posts 1, 9, 12, 13, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$60.00
60 combos
Hit prob
11.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$740.35
mean $1249.64
Expected ROI
+146.0%
net $87.58
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 5-horse A,B,C box on posts [1, 9, 12, 13, 5] — hits 11.8% of simulated runs
- · At $60 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $740 (mean $1250; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
9, 12, 13
C Value-edge longshots
5
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-horse box | $60.00 | 12.8% | $556.64 | +103% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 6.0% | $759.84 | +174% |
| 3×5×5 part wheel | $36.00 | 8.3% | $531.86 | +92% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 6.2% | $470.52 | +69% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 3.3% | $591.04 | +136% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | APHEDGE BOOK | 3.5-1 | 2.7-1 | ↓1.8-1 | 81.3 | 18% | 49% | ▼-42% |
| 9 | BPLEXI V. | 15-1 | 22-1 | ·15-1 | 76.3 | 11% | 33% | ▲+17% |
| 12 | BSZENGRAYA | 15-1 | 22-1 | ↑27-1 | 72.9 | 10% | 30% | ▲+21% |
| 13 | BETRAMUNTANA | 8.0-1 | 7.4-1 | ↑25-1 | 72.4 | 9% | 28% | ▲+18% |
| 7 | BELLA ELLA | 15-1 | 27-1 | ·12-1 | 74.5 | 9% | 27% | ▲+8% |
| 6 | PASSERINE | 8.0-1 | 7.3-1 | ↓5.0-1 | 70.6 | 8% | 25% | ▼-17% |
| 5 | CEPGERBER DAISY | 15-1 | 19-1 | ↑19-1 | 71.4 | 8% | 24% | ▲+11% |
| 10 | ROSE OF SAN ANTONE | 20-1 | 30-1 | ↓13-1 | 72.7 | 8% | 23% | ▲+5% |
| 3 | BATTIS GROVE | 10-1 | 12-1 | ↓5.0-1 | 70.1 | 7% | 21% | ▼-21% |
| 4 | COUPLET | 6.0-1 | 8.0-1 | ↑10-1 | 69.1 | 6% | 20% | ·-3% |
| 11 | TAMMY'S KISS | 4.5-1 | 5.7-1 | ↑6.0-1 | 68.9 | 6% | 19% | ▼-18% |
| 2 | SCRPOWER TO GLORY | 20-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 8 | SCRESERENA'S SURPRISE | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Fri, May 1 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
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