John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R9

PP 15

DROP SHOT

G '23 · ESSENTIAL QUALITY × CENTRE COURT

Trainer: ARNOLD GEORGE R II · Jockey: CONCEPCION AXEL

Today's prediction

75.5

Speed fig

20.5%

In-the-money

Last 5 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.29
  • BRIS Turf Pedigree +0.27
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.25
  • Today Track Code +0.23
  • Class Par Trend +0.20

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -0.70
  • Today Post Position -0.45
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.37
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.34
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.30

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-03 KEE 1m Turf 3 4.5 80 87 2p;7p1/4;outkckd place
2026-02-08 GP 1m Turf 7 5.8 78 85 4wd; 8wd 3/16; no kick
2025-11-09 CD 1.06m Turf 4 0.8 74 83 5p2nd;bid;led;yld btw
2025-10-05 KEE 1m Turf 6 1.5 71 81 3-4p;6p upr;willingly
2025-08-30 KD 6f Turf 4 4.8 71 80 Off slw;6-w bid;mvd up