John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R10

PP 10

HILL COUNTRY

C '23 · IMPROBABLE × MAGGIE D'ORO

Trainer: DESORMEAUX J KEITH · Jockey: GRAHAM J

Today's prediction

65.7

Speed fig

18.5%

In-the-money

Last 2 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Last Speed Fig +0.70
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.38
  • Today Track Code +0.26
  • Distance Change From Last +0.16
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Last +0.16

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -6.41
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.92
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.87
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.75
  • Speed Fig Trend -0.59

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-07 CD 1m Dirt 5 8.3 74 81 Step sow/crowdd st;ins
2026-04-10 KEE 6.5f Dirt 6 15.8 56 86 Inside; moved up