Fri, May 1
Race 2
OClm 80000n2x
Post: 1:00 · 1m · Dirt · $134K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #5 QUANTUM BURST (EP, QSP 8)
- #6 ANNA'S PROMISE (E, QSP 8)
- #4 WHITE ROCKS (E, QSP 7)
- #1 AMALFI DRIVE (EP, QSP 7)
- #7 SUDDEN SWITCH (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 9, 2, 3, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$71.33
mean $78.19
Expected ROI
-63.8%
net $-3.83
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [9, 2, 3, 5] — hits 2.8% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $71 (mean $78; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
9, 2
B Contenders
3, 5, 7
C Value-edge longshots
4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 2.7% | $77.94 | -64% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 5.3% | $87.01 | -59% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 5.3% | $66.89 | -70% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 8.4% | $72.71 | -66% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 10.1% | $77.94 | -60% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | APFIVE A SIDE | 3.0-1 | 3.4-1 | 87.6 | 15% | 44% | ▼-20% |
| 2 | ASDECADENT | 8.0-1 | 7.2-1 | 84.3 | 14% | 40% | ▲+12% |
| 3 | BPCHOPSTICKS | 4.5-1 | 4.3-1 | 85.7 | 14% | 40% | ▼-6% |
| 5 | BEPQUANTUM BURST | 6.0-1 | 6.2-1 | 84.2 | 13% | 39% | ·+2% |
| 7 | BEPSUDDEN SWITCH | 3.5-1 | 4.3-1 | 85.3 | 12% | 37% | ▼-20% |
| 6 | EANNA'S PROMISE | 8.0-1 | 9.7-1 | 85.6 | 12% | 36% | ▲+8% |
| 4 | CEWHITE ROCKS | 10-1 | 12-1 | 83.0 | 10% | 32% | ▲+9% |
| 1 | EPAMALFI DRIVE | 6.0-1 | 7.5-1 | 81.6 | 10% | 32% | ·-5% |
| 8 | SCREPCARMEL ROSE | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Fri, May 1 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.