Fri, May 1
Race 1
Md Sp Wt
Post: 12:30 · 1.06m · Dirt · $120K purse · 7 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 7 of 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #1 PHANTOM BLUE (E, QSP 6)
- #5 MASS (E, QSP 5)
2 of 7 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 1, 7, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
8.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$17.24
mean $25.65
Expected ROI
-63.7%
net $-3.82
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1, 7, 5] — hits 8.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $17 (mean $26; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
7, 5, 6
C Value-edge longshots
4, 2
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 8.3% | $15.51 | -77% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 14.0% | $17.24 | -71% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 13.9% | $17.24 | -72% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 14.7% | $17.24 | -79% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 22.2% | $17.24 | -72% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEPHANTOM BLUE | 0.8-1 | 0.5-1 | ↓0.6-1 | 85.3 | 29% | 71% | ▼-29% |
| 7 | BPEPISIST | 4.0-1 | 4.7-1 | ·4.5-1 | 78.5 | 16% | 49% | ·+3% |
| 5 | BEMASS | 8.0-1 | 9.1-1 | ·7.0-1 | 76.1 | 14% | 45% | ▲+13% |
| 6 | BSOARING HIGH | 3.5-1 | 3.6-1 | ↑6.0-1 | 73.9 | 11% | 37% | ·+1% |
| 3 | PSISTER JEAN | 12-1 | 20-1 | ↓6.0-1 | 75.8 | 11% | 36% | ·-1% |
| 4 | CSHAYWINII | 20-1 | 42-1 | ↑28-1 | 73.2 | 10% | 33% | ▲+24% |
| 2 | CBUTTERFLY JASMINE | 15-1 | 22-1 | ·15-1 | 70.8 | 8% | 29% | ▲+13% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Fri, May 1 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.