John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R2

PP 8

CARMEL ROSE

F '22 · CINCO CHARLIE × BEAUTIFUL WIFE

Trainer: STEPHEN ANTHONY · Jockey: MACHADO LUAN

Scratched today

75.5

Speed fig

In-the-money

This horse was scratched and won't run today. Past-performance data below is unaffected.

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.70
  • Field Avg Quirin +0.21
  • Today Track Code +0.21
  • Last Finish Pos +0.20
  • Best Finish Pos Career +0.17

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -1.06
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.65
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.41
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.38
  • Today Post Position -0.31

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-09 MVR 1m Dirt 1 0.5 70 78 Sttld;wore down rival
2026-03-25 MVR 1m Dirt 2 4.5 75 78 Bmp st;ld3p3/8;yld1/16
2026-01-02 MVR 1m Dirt 1 0.3 74 77 Awk st;3w move;dug in
2025-11-20 MVR 6f Dirt 1 0.5 76 78 Dueled;edged clr later
2025-11-05 MVR 1m Dirt 2 0.3 75 73 4w;clear lead;str duel
2025-08-29 BTP 1.06m Turf 9 13.5 63 76 Early bid; flattened
2025-08-01 BTP 6.5f Dirt 2 2.3 68 69 Rail; faded late
2025-07-18 BTP 1.06m Dirt 6 20.8 64 76 Near front; faded turn
2025-07-05 BTP 1.06m Turf 1 0.8 66 73 Rail; pace; driving
2025-06-06 BTP 1.06m Dirt 3 2.8 70 83 4p upr;rally;miss 2nd