Fri, May 1
Race 3
OClm 125000n1x
Post: 1:30 · 1.06m · Dirt · $127K purse · 10 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 10 of 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #6 MAXIMUM OFFER (EP, QSP 8)
- #10 STAR ACTRESS (EP, QSP 5)
- #5 JOYFUL JUSTICE (E, QSP 5)
- #3 KRISSYS STAR (EP, QSP 5)
- #4 MISS CALL (EP, QSP 4)
- #8 UR DESIRE (EP, QSP 2)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 9, 10, 7, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$54.95
mean $66.57
Expected ROI
-81.7%
net $-4.90
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [9, 10, 7, 5] — hits 1.7% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $55 (mean $67; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
9, 10
B Contenders
7, 5, 6
C Value-edge longshots
3, 8
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 1.8% | $54.95 | -84% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 3.2% | $62.78 | -77% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 3.3% | $54.95 | -82% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 5.0% | $67.52 | -73% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 6.3% | $62.78 | -77% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | APLEINANI | 5.0-1 | 3.8-1 | ↓2.5-1 | 84.8 | 14% | 39% | ▼-34% |
| 10 | AEPSTAR ACTRESS | 4.0-1 | 4.3-1 | ↓2.5-1 | 85.0 | 13% | 38% | ▼-35% |
| 7 | BPBETTY'S PEARL | 4.5-1 | 4.4-1 | ↑7.0-1 | 84.4 | 11% | 33% | ·+1% |
| 5 | BEJOYFUL JUSTICE | 6.0-1 | 5.5-1 | ↑8.0-1 | 83.1 | 11% | 32% | ·+4% |
| 6 | BEPMAXIMUM OFFER | 6.0-1 | 7.1-1 | ↑11-1 | 83.7 | 10% | 31% | ▲+10% |
| 4 | EPMISS CALL | 10-1 | 8.6-1 | ·11-1 | 83.3 | 10% | 31% | ▲+10% |
| 11 | SFEISTY RED HEAD | 20-1 | 26-1 | ↓7.0-1 | 82.1 | 9% | 28% | ·-4% |
| 2 | SMEASURE | 6.0-1 | 6.1-1 | ·7.0-1 | 80.1 | 9% | 27% | ·-4% |
| 3 | CEPKRISSYS STAR | 15-1 | 25-1 | ↑20-1 | 79.0 | 7% | 23% | ▲+11% |
| 8 | CEPUR DESIRE | 20-1 | 34-1 | ↑35-1 | 75.0 | 5% | 17% | ▲+10% |
| 1 | SCREMAKING DAISYS | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Fri, May 1 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.