John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R13

PP 1

EXPLORA

F '23 · BLAME × COLLECTIONS CHOICE

Trainer: BAFFERT BOB · Jockey: PRAT FLAVIEN

Today's prediction

90.1

Speed fig

29.3%

In-the-money

Last 7 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +7.72
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +2.43
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.39
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.26
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +1.19

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -1.48
  • Field Size Change From Last -1.18
  • Today Track Code -0.64
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.19
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 -0.18

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-01 OP 1.06m Dirt 1 0.8 90 94 Prompt;took over;held
2026-02-08 SA 1m Dirt 2 1.5 89 93 Tight1st;ins;game2nd
2026-01-10 SA 7f Dirt 1 5.3 96 93 Brush4w1/4;much best
2025-10-31 DMR 1.06m Dirt 2 0.8 95 94 Loomed; kept at bay
2025-10-04 SA 1.06m Dirt 1 4.3 97 93 3deep;bid2w1/4;cleared
2025-09-06 DMR 7f Dirt 2 1.0 88 94 Bpd st;ins;yield late
2025-08-17 DMR 5.5f Dirt 1 4.8 98 88 Inside; barely asked