John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R13

PP 4

COUNTING STARS

F '23 · HONOR A. P. × PAYNTERBYNUMBERS

Trainer: CASSE MARK · Jockey: ARRIETA FRANCISCO

Today's prediction

85.7

Speed fig

23.1%

In-the-money

Last 7 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +6.63
  • Speed Fig Consistency +1.36
  • Last Speed Fig +0.96
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.87
  • Last Finish Pos +0.42

Pushing prediction down

  • Field Size Change From Last -1.29
  • Today Field Size -1.25
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.89
  • Today Track Code -0.29
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.11

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-27 OP 1.06m Dirt 1 5.5 94 95 Prompt;pulld;riddn out
2026-03-01 OP 1.06m Dirt 2 0.8 89 94 4w; slowly closing gap
2026-02-06 OP 1.06m Dirt 8 60.3 18 90 Stopped2nd turn;walked
2025-12-27 OP 1m Dirt 1 6.0 90 89 5w7/8;3w bid 2nd;clr
2025-12-14 OP 6f Dirt 1 4.0 87 84 Traffic 1/4;split foes
2025-10-24 KEE 6f Dirt 5 14.8 61 88 3-2wbtw;4p1/4;gave way
2025-09-25 CD 6.5f Dirt 1 4.0 85 82 Bmpd st;2p;3w upr;clrd