John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R13

PP 11

PERCY'S BAR

F '23 · UPSTART × HONESTLY DEB

Trainer: COLEBROOK BEN · Jockey: MACHADO LUAN

Today's prediction

85.4

Speed fig

21.4%

In-the-money

Last 6 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +6.18
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +2.02
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.47
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.16
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.83

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -1.63
  • Field Size Change From Last -1.24
  • Today Track Code -0.73
  • Today Post Position -0.41
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 -0.23

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-03 KEE 1.06m Dirt 1 2.3 90 99 Ins;rail bid;drew off
2025-10-31 DMR 1.06m Dirt 3 3.8 91 94 Bpd hard3/16;fought on
2025-10-03 KEE 1.06m Dirt 1 2.8 94 94 Ins foe;bumped foe 1/8
2025-08-30 SAR 7f Dirt 2 6.5 83 94 5-4w uppr; second best
2025-06-29 CD 6f Dirt 1 5.0 87 90 Bold bid 4w1/4;cleared
2025-04-23 KEE 4.5f Dirt 1 4.0 80 84 Ins;rallied;good finsh