John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R13

PP 3

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F '23 · GUN RUNNER × DEVIOUS CHARM

Trainer: CASSE MARK · Jockey: TORRES CRISTIAN A

Today's prediction

84.8

Speed fig

21.3%

In-the-money

Last 8 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +5.44
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.29
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.73
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.64
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.55

Pushing prediction down

  • Field Size Change From Last -1.15
  • Today Field Size -1.07
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.32
  • Today Track Code -0.15
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.09

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-27 OP 1.06m Dirt 2 5.5 87 95 Wait7/16;steer3wclr2nd
2026-03-01 OP 1.06m Dirt 4 3.5 86 94 Steered4w1/4;even late
2026-02-06 OP 1.06m Dirt 1 0.3 89 90 Trffc1/4;bid btwn;game
2025-12-27 OP 1.06m Dirt 1 6.0 89 80 Dueled; drove clear
2025-11-29 CD 1.06m Dirt 3 1.8 84 81 Stalk 3w;bid;fendd off
2025-10-26 CD 1.06m Dirt 3 4.8 82 81 Awk/bob;ins;wait;ranon
2025-08-08 ELP 1m Dirt 2 0.1 77 78 2wbtw;bid 3w;outfinshd
2025-07-14 ELP 6.5f Dirt 4 5.8 68 79 4p into lane;flattened