Thu, Apr 30
Race 12
Md 50000
Post: 6:53 · 6f · Dirt · $67K purse · 48 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
48 runnersSpeed duel
36 early types and no pressers or closers in the field — expect a fast, attritional pace where the fittest E/EP survives. No style edge.
Projected speed
- #3 ROYAL SAPPHIRE (E, QSP 6)
- #3 ROYAL SAPPHIRE (E, QSP 6)
- #3 ROYAL SAPPHIRE (E, QSP 6)
- #3 ROYAL SAPPHIRE (E, QSP 6)
- #1 STORMTOWN (E, QSP 5)
- #1 STORMTOWN (E, QSP 5)
- #1 STORMTOWN (E, QSP 5)
- #1 STORMTOWN (E, QSP 5)
- #7 MIZZOU (E, QSP 4)
- #7 MIZZOU (E, QSP 4)
- #7 MIZZOU (E, QSP 4)
- #7 MIZZOU (E, QSP 4)
- #6 PRIME POWER (E, QSP 4)
- #6 PRIME POWER (E, QSP 4)
- #6 PRIME POWER (E, QSP 4)
- #6 PRIME POWER (E, QSP 4)
- #8 FIVE WISHES (E, QSP 4)
- #8 FIVE WISHES (E, QSP 4)
- #8 FIVE WISHES (E, QSP 4)
- #8 FIVE WISHES (E, QSP 4)
- #9 BARKER (E, QSP 3)
- #9 BARKER (E, QSP 3)
- #9 BARKER (E, QSP 3)
- #9 BARKER (E, QSP 3)
- #10 CASTLE RUN (EP, QSP 3)
- #10 CASTLE RUN (EP, QSP 3)
- #10 CASTLE RUN (EP, QSP 3)
- #10 CASTLE RUN (EP, QSP 3)
- #2 HELLACIOUS (EP, QSP 3)
- #2 HELLACIOUS (EP, QSP 3)
- #2 HELLACIOUS (EP, QSP 3)
- #2 HELLACIOUS (EP, QSP 3)
- #12 BOSS' DEED (EP, QSP 0)
- #12 BOSS' DEED (EP, QSP 0)
- #12 BOSS' DEED (EP, QSP 0)
- #12 BOSS' DEED (EP, QSP 0)
12 of 48 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$1.00
1 combos
Hit prob
0.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$0.00
mean $0.00
Expected ROI
-100.0%
net $-1.00
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [7] — hits 0.0% of simulated runs
- · At $1 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $0 (mean $0; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
7, 7
B Contenders
7, 7, 6
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (3)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-horse box | $1.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
| 5-horse box | $4.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
| 6-horse box | $7.00 | 0.0% | $0.00 | -100% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | BEMIZZOU | 3.0-1 | 2.8-1 | 80.6 | 3% | 9% | ▼-54% |
| 7 | BEMIZZOU | 3.0-1 | 2.8-1 | 80.6 | 3% | 9% | ▼-54% |
| 7 | BEMIZZOU | 3.0-1 | 2.8-1 | 80.6 | 3% | 9% | ▼-54% |
| 7 | BEMIZZOU | 3.0-1 | 2.8-1 | 80.6 | 3% | 9% | ▼-54% |
| 6 | BEPRIME POWER | 3.5-1 | 3.0-1 | 78.5 | 3% | 9% | ▼-47% |
| 6 | BEPRIME POWER | 3.5-1 | 3.0-1 | 78.5 | 3% | 9% | ▼-47% |
| 6 | BEPRIME POWER | 3.5-1 | 3.0-1 | 78.5 | 3% | 9% | ▼-47% |
| 9 | EBARKER | 4.5-1 | 3.8-1 | 77.9 | 3% | 9% | ▼-37% |
| 9 | EBARKER | 4.5-1 | 3.8-1 | 77.9 | 3% | 9% | ▼-37% |
| 9 | EBARKER | 4.5-1 | 3.8-1 | 77.9 | 3% | 9% | ▼-37% |
| 6 | BEPRIME POWER | 3.5-1 | 2.9-1 | 78.5 | 3% | 9% | ▼-48% |
| 9 | EBARKER | 4.5-1 | 3.8-1 | 77.8 | 3% | 9% | ▼-37% |
| 12 | EPBOSS' DEED | 20-1 | 25-1 | 78.3 | 3% | 8% | ·-4% |
| 12 | EPBOSS' DEED | 20-1 | 25-1 | 77.9 | 3% | 8% | ·-4% |
| 12 | EPBOSS' DEED | 20-1 | 25-1 | 77.9 | 3% | 8% | ·-4% |
| 12 | EPBOSS' DEED | 20-1 | 25-1 | 77.9 | 3% | 8% | ·-4% |
| 8 | EFIVE WISHES | 6.0-1 | 6.1-1 | 77.7 | 3% | 8% | ▼-29% |
| 8 | EFIVE WISHES | 6.0-1 | 6.1-1 | 77.7 | 3% | 8% | ▼-29% |
| 8 | EFIVE WISHES | 6.0-1 | 6.1-1 | 77.7 | 3% | 8% | ▼-29% |
| 8 | EFIVE WISHES | 6.0-1 | 6.3-1 | 77.5 | 2% | 7% | ▼-29% |
| 10 | EPCASTLE RUN | 8.0-1 | 6.9-1 | 73.6 | 2% | 7% | ▼-22% |
| 10 | EPCASTLE RUN | 8.0-1 | 6.6-1 | 73.4 | 2% | 7% | ▼-22% |
| 10 | EPCASTLE RUN | 8.0-1 | 6.6-1 | 73.4 | 2% | 7% | ▼-22% |
| 10 | EPCASTLE RUN | 8.0-1 | 6.6-1 | 73.4 | 2% | 7% | ▼-22% |
| 3 | EROYAL SAPPHIRE | 30-1 | 28-1 | 72.0 | 2% | 6% | ·-2% |
| 3 | EROYAL SAPPHIRE | 30-1 | 28-1 | 71.8 | 2% | 6% | ·-2% |
| 3 | EROYAL SAPPHIRE | 30-1 | 28-1 | 71.8 | 2% | 6% | ·-2% |
| 3 | EROYAL SAPPHIRE | 30-1 | 28-1 | 71.8 | 2% | 6% | ·-2% |
| 1 | ESTORMTOWN | 20-1 | 24-1 | 74.5 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 1 | ESTORMTOWN | 20-1 | 24-1 | 74.5 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 1 | ESTORMTOWN | 20-1 | 24-1 | 74.5 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 1 | ESTORMTOWN | 20-1 | 24-1 | 74.5 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 2 | EPHELLACIOUS | 20-1 | 26-1 | 71.8 | 2% | 5% | ▼-7% |
| 2 | EPHELLACIOUS | 20-1 | 27-1 | 71.5 | 1% | 5% | ▼-8% |
| 2 | EPHELLACIOUS | 20-1 | 27-1 | 71.5 | 1% | 5% | ▼-8% |
| 2 | EPHELLACIOUS | 20-1 | 27-1 | 71.5 | 1% | 5% | ▼-8% |
| 11 | KREWEZIN | 15-1 | 18-1 | 69.4 | 1% | 4% | ▼-12% |
| 11 | KREWEZIN | 15-1 | 22-1 | 67.7 | 1% | 3% | ▼-13% |
| 11 | KREWEZIN | 15-1 | 22-1 | 67.7 | 1% | 3% | ▼-13% |
| 11 | KREWEZIN | 15-1 | 22-1 | 67.7 | 1% | 3% | ▼-13% |
| 4 | DARK RYE | 15-1 | 25-1 | 68.2 | 1% | 3% | ▼-13% |
| 4 | DARK RYE | 15-1 | 25-1 | 68.2 | 1% | 3% | ▼-13% |
| 4 | DARK RYE | 15-1 | 25-1 | 68.2 | 1% | 3% | ▼-13% |
| 4 | DARK RYE | 15-1 | 26-1 | 68.1 | 1% | 3% | ▼-13% |
| 5 | CARCAR EXPRESS | 12-1 | 16-1 | 64.5 | 1% | 3% | ▼-17% |
| 5 | CARCAR EXPRESS | 12-1 | 16-1 | 64.5 | 1% | 3% | ▼-17% |
| 5 | CARCAR EXPRESS | 12-1 | 16-1 | 64.5 | 1% | 3% | ▼-17% |
| 5 | CARCAR EXPRESS | 12-1 | 17-1 | 64.1 | 1% | 3% | ▼-17% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 12 · Thu, Apr 30 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.