Derby 2026
← Race

PP 10

CASTLE RUN

G '22 · DAREDEVIL × SEASONED WARRIOR

Trainer: DEVAUX CHERIE · Jockey: ORTIZ JOSE L

Today's prediction

74.6

Speed fig

20.6%

In-the-money

Last 5 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 83.2 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Days Since Last Race +0.31
  • Speed Fig Trend +0.19
  • Prior Starts At Churchill +0.10
  • Last Speed Fig +0.06
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 +0.05

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -6.35
  • Max Speed Fig Career -0.84
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.61
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.35
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 -0.33

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-01 FG 5.5f Turf 5 6.5 70 83 Bmp btw; chsd; flatnd
2026-01-30 FG 5.5f Turf 3 1.0 75 83 Bmpst; rallied ins
2025-05-09 CD 5f Turf 4 2.0 77 87 2p;5p upr;denied show
2024-11-16 CD 6f Dirt 8 15.0 73 84 Rush ins;stdy;gave way
2024-09-28 CD 6f Dirt 3 2.5 77 84 Ins pair;game;yld late