Sat, May 16
Race 2
OClm 40000n2x
Post: 11:05 · 6f · Dirt · $58K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #3 CALL ME ANDY (EP, QSP 7)
- #9 UNCLE CAT (EP, QSP 6)
- #11 DEAN DELIVERS (E, QSP 4)
- #10 BLUE KINGDOM (EP, QSP 2)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
6-horse A,B,C box on posts 10, 7, 4, 13, 9, 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$120.00
120 combos
Hit prob
49.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$337.26
mean $824.04
Expected ROI
+239.9%
net $287.92
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 6-horse A,B,C box on posts [10, 7, 4, 13, 9, 8] — hits 49.5% of simulated runs
- · At $120 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $337 (mean $824; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
10
B Contenders
7, 4, 13
C Value-edge longshots
8, 9
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 17.9% | $232.99 | +160% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 10.0% | $201.15 | +134% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 9.6% | $218.33 | +103% |
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 5.5% | $342.09 | +204% |
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 6.0% | $193.09 | +88% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | AEPBLUE KINGDOM | 1.2-1 | 0.7-1 | 89.8 | 24% | 62% | ▼-38% |
| 7 | BSBAND CAMP | 12-1 | 12-1 | 84.9 | 14% | 43% | ▲+23% |
| 4 | BPFREEZE THE FIRE | 10-1 | 9.0-1 | 87.7 | 14% | 43% | ▲+20% |
| 13 | BPGRAND OPENING | 8.0-1 | 7.6-1 | 84.0 | 13% | 40% | ▲+12% |
| 3 | EPCALL ME ANDY | 1.2-1 | 0.9-1 | 82.1 | 11% | 34% | ▼-66% |
| 9 | CEPUNCLE CAT | 15-1 | 13-1 | 82.2 | 10% | 32% | ▲+16% |
| 8 | CPDEPOSITION | 30-1 | 36-1 | 81.9 | 7% | 24% | ▲+16% |
| 11 | EDEAN DELIVERS | 10-1 | 11-1 | 79.8 | 6% | 22% | ·-2% |
| 1 | SCRPALL THE HARDWAYS | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | SCREPWICKEDDIVINE | 6.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | SCREPSUREMEANTTOOBE | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 6 | SCRERADICAL RIGHT | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 12 | SCREMAGIC MULE | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Sat, May 16 · Laurel Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.