John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM

Sat, May 16

Race 4

SkipatL125k

Post: 12:16 · 6f · Dirt · $125K purse · 5 runners

New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.

Pace shape

5 runners

Contested pace

4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.

3 E — pure early 1 EP — early/presser 1 P — presser

Projected speed

Trifecta shape

Wide open

Lottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.

Field too small for a trifecta

Top-4 ITM concentration: 85% · Top 4 cover 2.54 of the 3.00 expected ITM finishers

Field

Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).

PP Horse ML Pred Close Pred Fig Win ITM% Edge
2PPASSAGE EAST3.0-12.8-191.827%73%+9%
7EMODO1.8-11.7-190.421%63%-28%
1ESTRIKER HAS DIAL8.0-18.3-188.619%59%+31%
3EKAPPA KAPPA2.5-12.6-189.118%58%-15%
4EPBENEDETTA8.0-19.7-186.714%46%+18%
5SCREPSPORTING LADY12-1
6SCREPCOMPLEXITY JANE12-1

Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.

Ask Claude Opus

Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Sat, May 16 · Laurel Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.

Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.

Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.