Sat, May 16
Race 6
SirBartonB100k
Post: 1:28 · 1.06m · Dirt · $100K purse · 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #6 PONT AVEN (E, QSP 8)
- #5 FALCON JET (EP, QSP 7)
- #4 FINAL STORY (EP, QSP 6)
- #1 MINORINCONVENIENCE (E, QSP 5)
- #3 LET'S GO LANDO (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 4, 3, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
12.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$41.55
mean $41.94
Expected ROI
-16.0%
net $-0.96
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [4, 3, 5] — hits 12.0% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $42 (mean $42; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
4
B Contenders
3, 5, 2
C Value-edge longshots
6, 1
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 12.3% | $15.45 | -63% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 21.4% | $19.67 | -54% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 19.7% | $19.67 | -56% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 19.9% | $19.67 | -59% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 27.4% | $22.59 | -51% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AEPFINAL STORY | 2.0-1 | 1.6-1 | 92.1 | 28% | 71% | ▼-14% |
| 3 | BEPLET'S GO LANDO | 6.0-1 | 6.6-1 | 89.9 | 19% | 56% | ▲+20% |
| 5 | BEPFALCON JET | 10-1 | 8.4-1 | 87.5 | 17% | 54% | ▲+30% |
| 2 | BSBIG CUDDLE | 4.5-1 | 4.0-1 | 85.8 | 16% | 50% | ·+3% |
| 1 | CEMINORINCONVENIENCE | 12-1 | 13-1 | 86.0 | 11% | 38% | ▲+18% |
| 6 | CEPONT AVEN | 30-1 | 32-1 | 83.5 | 9% | 33% | ▲+24% |
| 7 | SCREREAGAN'S HONOR | 1.4-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Sat, May 16 · Laurel Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.