Sat, May 16
Race 8
MdSprnt-G3
Post: 2:48 · 6f · Dirt · $150K purse · 7 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 7 of 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersSpeed duel
7 early types and no pressers or closers in the field — expect a fast, attritional pace where the fittest E/EP survives. No style edge.
Projected speed
- #6 CELTIC CONTENDER (E, QSP 8)
- #4 HAILEYSFIRSTNOTION (EP, QSP 7)
- #3 FAUST (EP, QSP 7)
- #2 FASTER GATOR (EP, QSP 6)
- #1 BRING THE SMOKE (E, QSP 5)
- #9 S S SINATRA (EP, QSP 4)
- #8 SLAM NOTION (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
5-horse A,B,C box on posts 4, 6, 8, 3, 9
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$60.00
60 combos
Hit prob
40.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$100.96
mean $190.17
Expected ROI
+28.4%
net $17.05
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 5-horse A,B,C box on posts [4, 6, 8, 3, 9] — hits 40.5% of simulated runs
- · At $60 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $101 (mean $190; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
4
B Contenders
6, 8, 3
C Value-edge longshots
9
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 11.2% | $113.58 | +93% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 22.2% | $102.40 | +40% |
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 10.5% | $105.45 | +89% |
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 9.2% | $113.58 | +69% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 15.7% | $100.96 | +30% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AEPHAILEYSFIRSTNOTION | 3.5-1 | 2.8-1 | ↑5.0-1 | 97.0 | 27% | 68% | ▲+26% |
| 6 | BECELTIC CONTENDER | 4.5-1 | 3.8-1 | ↓3.0-1 | 93.2 | 18% | 54% | ▼-10% |
| 8 | BEPSLAM NOTION | 5.0-1 | 5.1-1 | ↓3.5-1 | 92.4 | 16% | 50% | ▼-7% |
| 3 | BEPFAUST | 8.0-1 | 8.8-1 | ↓3.0-1 | 91.2 | 12% | 39% | ▼-25% |
| 2 | EPFASTER GATOR | 4.5-1 | 4.1-1 | ↓2.5-1 | 88.6 | 11% | 37% | ▼-36% |
| 1 | EBRING THE SMOKE | 10-1 | 9.4-1 | ↓7.0-1 | 87.4 | 9% | 31% | ·-1% |
| 9 | CEPS S SINATRA | 30-1 | 51-1 | ·31-1 | 86.3 | 6% | 22% | ▲+14% |
| 5 | SCREPFLOODLITES | 4.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 7 | SCREPHYMN | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Sat, May 16 · Laurel Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.