Sat, May 16
Race 1
OClm 40000n2x
Post: 10:30 · 5.5f · Turf · $58K purse · 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #1 SALLY'S GOLD (EP, QSP 7)
- #10 PREPAREFORTAKEOFF (EP, QSP 7)
- #2 BOUJEE BUBBLEZ (EP, QSP 3)
- #9 PRECIOUS AVARY (EP, QSP 3)
- #3 CAIRO STREET (EP, QSP 1)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 7, 8, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$48.74
mean $50.17
Expected ROI
-76.5%
net $-4.59
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [7, 8, 2] — hits 2.8% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $49 (mean $50; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
7
B Contenders
8, 2, 3
C Value-edge longshots
6, 4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 2.6% | $49.12 | -78% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 4.7% | $53.97 | -68% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 5.0% | $53.97 | -73% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 5.0% | $53.97 | -78% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 7.8% | $53.97 | -70% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | ASEPIC STYLE | 1.6-1 | 1.4-1 | 84.2 | 17% | 46% | ▼-52% |
| 8 | BPGIFT OF GAB | 6.0-1 | 4.9-1 | 79.7 | 14% | 40% | ·+4% |
| 2 | BEPBOUJEE BUBBLEZ | 3.5-1 | 4.0-1 | 79.0 | 13% | 37% | ▼-19% |
| 3 | BEPCAIRO STREET | 6.0-1 | 6.5-1 | 78.6 | 12% | 35% | ·-1% |
| 1 | EPSALLY'S GOLD | 8.0-1 | 5.8-1 | 79.9 | 11% | 34% | ▲+6% |
| 6 | CSITSAMONSTAMASH | 30-1 | 24-1 | 77.3 | 11% | 33% | ▲+25% |
| 4 | CSSHEILAHS WARCLOUD | 30-1 | 37-1 | 78.5 | 9% | 28% | ▲+19% |
| 9 | EPPRECIOUS AVARY | 8.0-1 | 9.4-1 | 75.5 | 8% | 26% | ·-2% |
| 5 | SSECURE'S HOPE | 15-1 | 27-1 | 70.7 | 4% | 13% | ·-3% |
| 10 | EPPREPAREFORTAKEOFF | 30-1 | 49-1 | 68.2 | 2% | 8% | ·-0% |
| 11 | SCRERIVER SEINE | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Sat, May 16 · Laurel Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.