Sat, May 16
Race 7
ChickLangL150k
Post: 2:07 · 6f · Dirt · $150K purse · 7 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 7 of 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #6 SHANE'S WONDER (E, QSP 8)
- #2 HOLLYWOOD IMPORT (EP, QSP 6)
- #4 OBLITERATION (EP, QSP 5)
- #5 IGNITER (E, QSP 4)
- #7 TOP MANIPULATOR (EP, QSP 4)
- #1 FULMINE (EP, QSP 0)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 6, 5, 4, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
10.8%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$11.75
mean $40.79
Expected ROI
-26.9%
net $-1.61
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [6, 5, 4, 2] — hits 10.8% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $12 (mean $41; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
6, 5
B Contenders
4, 2, 1
C Value-edge longshots
7, 8
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 20.9% | $23.24 | -12% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 15.8% | $23.24 | -23% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 20.9% | $12.88 | -26% |
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 17.9% | $8.01 | -65% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 30.3% | $23.24 | -22% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | AESHANE'S WONDER | 3.0-1 | 2.9-1 | ·3.0-1 | 91.9 | 25% | 67% | ·+4% |
| 5 | AEIGNITER | 2.5-1 | 2.2-1 | ↑3.5-1 | 89.1 | 23% | 64% | ▲+7% |
| 4 | BEPOBLITERATION | 1.2-1 | 0.8-1 | ↓0.6-1 | 89.4 | 21% | 61% | ▼-39% |
| 2 | BEPHOLLYWOOD IMPORT | 15-1 | 21-1 | ↑34-1 | 82.8 | 9% | 30% | ▲+23% |
| 1 | BEPFULMINE | 20-1 | 38-1 | ↓11-1 | 84.2 | 8% | 29% | ▲+8% |
| 7 | CEPTOP MANIPULATOR | 30-1 | 45-1 | ↓21-1 | 80.0 | 8% | 27% | ▲+15% |
| 8 | CSMAGIC WALLET | 15-1 | 21-1 | ↑30-1 | 80.6 | 6% | 22% | ▲+14% |
| 3 | SCREBUDS NOTION | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Sat, May 16 · Laurel Park. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.