Sun, May 31
Race 9
OClm 125000n1x
Post: 4:56 · 1m · Dirt · $127K purse · 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #8 NOBLE AFFAIR (E, QSP 8)
- #11 PRIZE PICK (E, QSP 7)
- #6 MEMORY (EP, QSP 6)
- #4 REBEL INSTINCT (EP, QSP 5)
- #3 WESTERN WARRIOR (EP, QSP 4)
- #10 I DID I DID (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 4, 11, 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$44.33
mean $47.35
Expected ROI
-81.1%
net $-4.86
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [4, 11, 8] — hits 2.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $44 (mean $47; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
4, 11
B Contenders
8, 6, 3
C Value-edge longshots
9, 10
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 2.3% | $27.18 | -90% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 4.1% | $27.18 | -85% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 4.6% | $27.18 | -87% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 6.3% | $36.40 | -82% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 8.2% | $31.90 | -82% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AEPREBEL INSTINCT | 3.0-1 | 2.2-1 | 84.4 | 14% | 41% | ▼-23% |
| 11 | AEPRIZE PICK | 6.0-1 | 5.2-1 | 85.2 | 14% | 40% | ·+4% |
| 8 | BENOBLE AFFAIR | 10-1 | 8.2-1 | 85.4 | 13% | 39% | ▲+16% |
| 6 | BEPMEMORY | 4.0-1 | 4.0-1 | 87.0 | 13% | 38% | ▼-13% |
| 3 | BEPWESTERN WARRIOR | 20-1 | 23-1 | 82.6 | 10% | 31% | ▲+19% |
| 10 | CEPI DID I DID | 15-1 | 18-1 | 83.5 | 10% | 31% | ▲+15% |
| 9 | CPBILOBA | 20-1 | 23-1 | 80.8 | 9% | 28% | ▲+16% |
| 1 | SLIGHTER | 15-1 | 11-1 | 77.6 | 9% | 27% | ▲+11% |
| 7 | SBLUE FORTY TWO | 20-1 | 32-1 | 81.6 | 8% | 26% | ▲+14% |
| 2 | SCRPGUN RANGE | 4.5-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | SCRPENVISION | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 12 | SCREPJ J GREY | 12-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 13 | SCREPVOLENDAM | 15-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Sun, May 31 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.