Sun, May 31
Race 8
Md Sp Wt
Post: 4:23 · 6.5f · Dirt · $120K purse · 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersUnprojectable
9 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (likely first-time starters) — pace shape can't be called.
Projected speed
- #3 IMPRACTICAL (E, QSP 4)
9 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
5-horse box on posts 3, 4, 2, 7, 1
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$60.00
60 combos
Hit prob
13.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$539.15
mean $616.78
Expected ROI
+35.9%
net $21.55
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 5-horse box on posts [3, 4, 2, 7, 1] — hits 13.2% of simulated runs
- · At $60 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $539 (mean $617; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
3, 4
B Contenders
2, 7, 1
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 3.2% | $658.43 | +134% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 6.1% | $539.15 | +66% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 4.6% | $611.64 | +71% |
| 3×5×5 part wheel | $36.00 | 8.7% | $506.30 | +38% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 3.5% | $521.50 | +48% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AEIMPRACTICAL | 15-1 | 19-1 | 78.3 | 14% | 41% | ▲+25% |
| 4 | APHAWKEYE STATE | 6.0-1 | 8.1-1 | 77.2 | 13% | 37% | ·+0% |
| 2 | BMCCANN | 6.0-1 | 6.2-1 | 72.3 | 12% | 34% | ·-2% |
| 7 | BCIVIC CHARM | 8.0-1 | 9.8-1 | 72.9 | 10% | 31% | ·+3% |
| 1 | BMAX IS HIM | 15-1 | 18-1 | 68.9 | 8% | 26% | ▲+10% |
| 10 | STUDY | 5.0-1 | 6.1-1 | 68.2 | 8% | 25% | ▼-18% |
| 11 | CAMPOBASSO | 4.0-1 | 4.0-1 | 68.3 | 8% | 24% | ▼-27% |
| 12 | INTERROGATOR | 15-1 | 18-1 | 68.0 | 8% | 24% | ▲+8% |
| 9 | GADGET PLAY | 8.0-1 | 7.5-1 | 68.3 | 8% | 24% | ·-5% |
| 8 | DELANCEY STREET | 12-1 | 17-1 | 67.7 | 6% | 19% | ·-1% |
| 6 | BIGTIMETIMMYJIM | 20-1 | 45-1 | 68.4 | 5% | 17% | ·+5% |
| 5 | SCRNATIVE BREW | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Sun, May 31 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.