Sun, May 31
Race 10
Md 50000
Post: 5:27 · 1m · Turf · $67K purse · 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #11 HAPPY PRINCE (E, QSP 8)
- #4 CULTURE WAR (EP, QSP 5)
- #7 POWER OF WILL (E, QSP 3)
4 of 11 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 11, 6, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$157.07
mean $156.53
Expected ROI
-17.1%
net $-1.03
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [11, 6, 4] — hits 3.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $157 (mean $157; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
11
B Contenders
6, 4, 9
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 2.9% | $68.44 | -64% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 5.4% | $75.92 | -53% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 5.0% | $67.76 | -72% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 10.0% | $86.96 | -49% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 9.4% | $71.19 | -61% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | AEHAPPY PRINCE | 2.5-1 | 2.0-1 | 77.6 | 17% | 47% | ▼-26% |
| 6 | BBARRACKS | 10-1 | 11-1 | 73.5 | 14% | 41% | ▲+18% |
| 4 | BEPCULTURE WAR | 12-1 | 13-1 | 77.9 | 14% | 40% | ▲+20% |
| 9 | BPFLY GUY MICK | 6.0-1 | 6.3-1 | 74.1 | 11% | 32% | ·-4% |
| 1 | STIMESTREAM | 8.0-1 | 7.5-1 | 70.8 | 10% | 30% | ·+1% |
| 2 | SBOTH SIDES OF BAD | 4.0-1 | 5.4-1 | 73.8 | 9% | 29% | ▼-22% |
| 5 | PCHAMPAGNE LIBERAL | 15-1 | 19-1 | 72.5 | 8% | 24% | ▲+8% |
| 10 | HILL COUNTRY | 20-1 | 37-1 | 65.7 | 6% | 19% | ▲+6% |
| 7 | EPOWER OF WILL | 20-1 | 41-1 | 68.6 | 5% | 17% | ·+5% |
| 3 | THESPIAN | 15-1 | 27-1 | 66.7 | 5% | 16% | ·+0% |
| 8 | WEST OF EAST TEXAS | 20-1 | 34-1 | 52.1 | 2% | 7% | ▼-6% |
| 12 | SCRPMCKINSENSE | 10-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 10 · Sun, May 31 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.