John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R9

PP 8

NOBLE AFFAIR

C '23 · VEKOMA × PADEN AFFAIR

Trainer: ASMUSSEN STEVEN M · Jockey: GEROUX FLORENT

Today's prediction

85.4

Speed fig

39.0%

In-the-money

Last 4 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +5.58
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.85
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.12
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.71
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.54

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -0.47
  • Today Post Position -0.39
  • Distance Change From Last -0.32
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.29
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.19

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-02 CD 6.5f Dirt 3 8.0 85 90 3w; 6p upper; weakened
2026-03-28 OP 6f Dirt 2 0.3 93 90 Bid3p turn;duel;denied
2026-01-24 FG 6f Dirt 1 0.5 89 90 In charge; on task
2025-12-27 FG 5.5f Turf 3 1.0 80 81 Trail; outs; rallied