Derby 2026
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PP 11

NOBLE AFFAIR

C '23 · VEKOMA × PADEN AFFAIR

Trainer: ASMUSSEN STEVEN M · Jockey: ORTIZ JOSE L

Today's prediction

87.7

Speed fig

40.1%

In-the-money

Last 3 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 83.2 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +2.37
  • Max Speed Fig Career +1.17
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.97
  • Speed Fig Consistency +0.34
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.27

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.41
  • Speed Fig At Similar Distance Mean -0.15
  • Prior Starts At Churchill -0.14
  • Speed Fig Trend -0.13
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.05

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-28 OP 6f Dirt 2 0.3 93 90 Bid3p turn;duel;denied
2026-01-24 FG 6f Dirt 1 0.5 89 90 In charge; on task
2025-12-27 FG 5.5f Turf 3 1.0 80 81 Trail; outs; rallied