Sun, May 31
Race 4
Clm 16000
Post: 2:14 · 6f · Dirt · $55K purse · 7 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 7 of 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #8 TOP GUN TOMMY (E, QSP 8)
- #5 SAWYER FOX (E, QSP 8)
- #2 LORD MAJESTY (EP, QSP 7)
- #1 ILLINI (EP, QSP 6)
- #4 UPTURNED BRIM (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 8, 2, 7, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
5.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$14.49
mean $21.02
Expected ROI
-79.4%
net $-4.76
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [8, 2, 7, 4] — hits 5.9% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $14 (mean $21; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
8, 2
B Contenders
7, 4, 1
C Value-edge longshots
5, 6
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 6.2% | $13.52 | -86% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 9.8% | $19.35 | -72% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 11.9% | $16.98 | -75% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 14.2% | $21.50 | -70% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 19.6% | $16.98 | -65% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | AETOP GUN TOMMY | 4.0-1 | 3.9-1 | ↓1.8-1 | 81.9 | 19% | 53% | ▼-38% |
| 2 | AEPLORD MAJESTY | 2.5-1 | 2.1-1 | ↑4.0-1 | 81.3 | 19% | 53% | ·+2% |
| 7 | BPBEBEDOURO | 3.0-1 | 2.6-1 | ↓1.6-1 | 78.4 | 16% | 47% | ▼-51% |
| 4 | BEPUPTURNED BRIM | 4.5-1 | 5.3-1 | ↑8.0-1 | 79.6 | 16% | 46% | ▲+18% |
| 1 | BEPILLINI | 20-1 | 30-1 | ·20-1 | 76.4 | 11% | 36% | ▲+24% |
| 6 | CPRAISING KANE | 12-1 | 15-1 | ↓9.0-1 | 76.2 | 11% | 34% | ▲+8% |
| 5 | CESAWYER FOX | 10-1 | 15-1 | ↑13-1 | 72.9 | 10% | 31% | ▲+13% |
| 3 | SCRPFORTY LOVE | 6.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Sun, May 31 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.