John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R5

PP 1

BAYTOWN BRUISER

G '21 · PRESERVATIONIST × SHES TRICKEY

Trainer: KING BARRY L · Jockey: GEROUX FLORENT

Today's prediction

78.2

Speed fig

59.7%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.71
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.39
  • Speed Fig Consistency +0.27
  • Today Post Position +0.25
  • Today Field Size +0.22

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.29
  • BRIS Prime Power -0.21
  • Num Career Starts -0.14
  • Jockey Meet Win Rate -0.11
  • Tj Combo Roi 365d -0.11

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-09 CD 1.06m Dirt 2 1.5 79 88 Stalk 3w;chs 2nd;ranon
2026-04-25 CD 6.5f Dirt 6 19.5 58 89 Chsd 2-3p;faded btw1/4
2026-03-07 LRL 1m Dirt 1 7.5 90 84 Led 5/16; drew clear
2026-02-28 TP 6.5f Dirt 3 2.8 85 88 2p;4p btw3/16;duel shw
2025-12-21 OP 6f Dirt 5 7.0 79 90 Off slw;no serious bid
2025-11-16 CD 1.06m Dirt 6 8.8 75 90 Ins pair 2nd; faded
2025-10-31 CD 1.06m Dirt 2 0.5 87 88 Ins;3-4p1/8;bid btwn
2025-10-16 KEE 6f Dirt 6 13.5 72 93 Bob/bmp st;3w;5-6p upr
2025-09-26 CD 1m Dirt 2 2.3 85 88 Vied 2w;led;caught1/16
2025-09-14 CD 7f Dirt 2 2.0 84 89 2w;btw1/4;ranon;up plc