John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 5

SAWYER FOX

G '20 · HIT IT A BOMB × ONE OTHER THAN

Trainer: CATALANO WAYNE M · Jockey: ELLIOTT JANE

Today's prediction

72.9

Speed fig

31.2%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Field Avg Quirin +0.26
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.19
  • Last Speed Fig +0.17
  • Weight Change From Last +0.12
  • Days Since Last Race +0.12

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -0.53
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.46
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.45
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.44
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.44

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-03 HAW 5.5f Dirt 1 5.0 79 85 Stumble;clr1/4;driving
2026-01-11 FG 5f Turf 6 6.8 72 86 Yield3/16; faded
2025-12-19 FG 6f Dirt 6 12.0 62 85 Vied briefly; retreat
2025-11-20 FG 5f Turf 4 5.0 72 87 Press; vied; yielded
2025-11-02 HAW 7.5f Turf 7 10.0 71 80 Big lead;fail to last
2025-10-15 IND 5f Turf 8 13.8 68 88 Stalked4p;faded str
2025-09-11 HAW 5.5f Turf 1 0.3 80 82 Ins;set dwn 1/8;prvail
2025-07-13 HAW 7.5f Turf 2 0.1 77 82 Eager1st;clr1/4;game
2025-06-12 HAW 5.5f Turf 1 6.5 81 77 Switch leads 2x;easily
2023-09-04 HAW 5.5f Turf 2 1.0 76 80 4-5 wide upper;gamely