Sun, May 31
Race 3
Clm 16000n2l
Post: 1:44 · 1m · Dirt · $36K purse · 7 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 7 of 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #6 IL CAVALLINO (EP, QSP 8)
- #2 FAST JOKER (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 4, 6, 1, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
6.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$27.52
mean $48.94
Expected ROI
-49.1%
net $-2.95
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [4, 6, 1, 5] — hits 6.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $28 (mean $49; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
4, 6
B Contenders
1, 5, 2
C Value-edge longshots
7, 3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 6.8% | $18.26 | -71% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 11.8% | $24.64 | -55% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 12.3% | $22.54 | -68% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 16.6% | $24.64 | -43% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 21.3% | $22.94 | -59% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | APWHISKEY SHOT | 4.5-1 | 3.8-1 | ·3.5-1 | 75.1 | 22% | 59% | ·+2% |
| 6 | AEPIL CAVALLINO | 1.8-1 | 1.6-1 | ↓0.6-1 | 77.7 | 19% | 55% | ▼-45% |
| 1 | BSHARDTOBLAME | 8.0-1 | 7.6-1 | ·9.0-1 | 73.9 | 14% | 43% | ▲+17% |
| 5 | BPROMANTIC LEAD | 6.0-1 | 7.8-1 | ↑11-1 | 69.5 | 13% | 42% | ▲+20% |
| 2 | BEPFAST JOKER | 3.5-1 | 4.6-1 | ↑4.5-1 | 71.1 | 13% | 41% | ·-5% |
| 7 | CSBAGG O TIME | 15-1 | 21-1 | ↑34-1 | 69.2 | 9% | 31% | ▲+24% |
| 3 | CPSTEFAN'S TITLE | 4.0-1 | 5.7-1 | ↑13-1 | 65.7 | 9% | 30% | ▲+11% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Sun, May 31 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.