John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 5

ROMANTIC LEAD

G '21 · UNION RAGS × TEAM OF TEAMS

Trainer: FOSTER ERIC · Jockey: GAFFALIONE TYLER

Today's prediction

69.5

Speed fig

41.6%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.32
  • Today Track Code +0.25
  • Tj Combo Win Rate 365d +0.20
  • Field Avg Quirin +0.19
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.17

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -5.86
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.42
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.33
  • Last Speed Fig -0.33
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 -0.23

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-08 CD 1.06m Dirt 4 12.0 62 82 Hop/off slw;trail 2-4p
2026-04-18 KEE 1.13m Dirt 5 12.5 70 87 Step slow;2p;3-5p2nd
2026-03-27 TP 1m Dirt 2 2.8 74 81 Brshd st;ins;dueld plc
2026-02-20 TP 1m Dirt 6 12.3 60 80 Step slow;2-3p;5p2nd
2026-01-22 TP 1m Dirt 4 4.5 78 80 Bpd btw/chk st;evn btw
2025-12-20 TP 1m Dirt 5 3.5 74 81 Svd grnd;traffc btw1/8
2025-12-05 TP 1m Dirt 5 2.0 72 81 Close up/no late kick
2025-11-14 CD 1.06m Dirt 3 5.0 64 83 Bmpd;sqz'd brk;btwn1/2
2025-10-03 BTP 1m Turf 6 5.3 69 80 Mid-pk;bi5/16;flattend
2025-09-11 CD 1.06m Dirt 3 9.0 76 83 Shut off st;ins;chased