Sun, May 31
Race 2
Clm 30000n2l
Post: 1:15 · 1m · Dirt · $62K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #1 QUINN'S PROMISE (EP, QSP 6)
- #5 GALATINA (EP, QSP 6)
- #4 FERMI (EP, QSP 5)
- #7 STATE CHARMER (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 3, 6, 1, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
6.1%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$19.17
mean $28.34
Expected ROI
-71.1%
net $-4.26
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [3, 6, 1, 5] — hits 6.1% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $19 (mean $28; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
3, 6
B Contenders
1, 5, 4
C Value-edge longshots
2, 7
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 6.2% | $15.68 | -83% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 12.2% | $20.21 | -69% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 10.2% | $28.00 | -69% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 14.2% | $36.70 | -66% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 20.0% | $36.70 | -67% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | APDON'T BE SALTY | 3.0-1 | 2.7-1 | 76.6 | 18% | 53% | ▼-11% |
| 6 | APBELLE OFTHE DANCE | 4.0-1 | 3.6-1 | 77.8 | 18% | 51% | ·+0% |
| 1 | BEPQUINN'S PROMISE | 1.8-1 | 1.9-1 | 78.0 | 17% | 49% | ▼-42% |
| 5 | BEPGALATINA | 6.0-1 | 7.2-1 | 76.1 | 17% | 49% | ▲+12% |
| 4 | BEPFERMI | 4.5-1 | 6.9-1 | 75.5 | 11% | 36% | ▼-10% |
| 7 | CEPSTATE CHARMER | 10-1 | 12-1 | 69.8 | 10% | 31% | ▲+8% |
| 2 | CPFRESH OUT | 15-1 | 21-1 | 69.5 | 10% | 31% | ▲+15% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Sun, May 31 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.