John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 1

HARDTOBLAME

G '23 · HARD SPUN × BLAMED

Trainer: ASMUSSEN STEVEN M · Jockey: ROSADO JOHAN

Today's prediction

73.9

Speed fig

42.6%

In-the-money

Last 8 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.41
  • Today Post Position +0.35
  • Today Track Code +0.34
  • BRIS Turf Pedigree +0.19
  • Today Field Size +0.19

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -3.37
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.63
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 -0.31
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.29
  • Last Speed Fig -0.28

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-28 CD 7f Dirt 7 9.0 63 86 5p; no factor
2026-03-27 TP 1m Dirt 4 7.3 73 86 Tracked 3-4p;gave way
2026-03-14 TP 6.5f Dirt 4 2.0 79 82 2-3p;5p3/16;outkicked
2026-02-04 LRL 7f Dirt 7 29.5 46 93 Trck 4w;empty stretch
2025-12-27 TP 1m Dirt 8 9.0 68 86 Chs 4p;wkn btw;left ld
2025-11-23 CD 1m Dirt 1 1.3 72 77 4-3w;bid 5p1/4;held
2025-10-23 IND 1m Dirt 3 7.8 74 71 Stalked rail;no bid
2025-09-10 KD 1m Turf 10 53.5 8 77 Step slowly; no threat