John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R7

PP 3

STORMY PARADISE

F '22 · GET STORMY × AVIE'S PARADISE

Trainer: MOGER ED JR · Jockey: PAULY SUMMER

Today's prediction

72.9

Speed fig

16.3%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Class Par Trend +0.38
  • Today Weight +0.36
  • Distance Change From Last +0.22
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.18
  • Field Avg Quirin +0.18

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.80
  • Days Since Last Race -0.66
  • Last Finish Pos -0.58
  • Tj Combo Roi 365d -0.31
  • Num Career Starts -0.29

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2025-10-24 KEE 1m Turf 12 12.8 75 89 Caught upr;stopped btw
2025-10-05 KEE 5.5f Turf 8 7.5 82 Bit tight early; 4-6p
2025-09-12 BTP 5f Turf 1 0.5 74 76 Chase;3p;up
2025-08-16 BTP 5f Turf 1 4.0 77 68 Well measured;drw off
2025-08-04 ELP 5.5f Turf 10 5.0 72 78 5p upper; evened out
2025-06-07 IND 5f Dirt 7 18.3 48 75 Stlk btw;gave way turn
2025-05-19 IND 5f Turf 3 1.3 68 76 Taken up3/8;late rally
2025-05-05 IND 1.04m Dirt 6 18.8 55 71 Clear;gave way5/16
2025-03-28 TP 6.5f Dirt 9 18.0 56 77 Brief speed empty turn
2025-03-06 TP 6f Dirt 11 21.0 49 80 Brief chase; empty str