Fri, May 29
Race 3
Clm 80000n2l
Post: 1:43 · 1.06m · Turf · $82K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 ROCKY JOY (E, QSP 4)
- #3 ABBI FEDE (EP, QSP 3)
- #8 SICILIAN DEFENSE (E, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 3, 1, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$32.86
mean $36.99
Expected ROI
-73.1%
net $-4.39
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [3, 1, 7] — hits 4.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $33 (mean $37; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
3, 1
B Contenders
7, 4, 8
C Value-edge longshots
6, 5
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 4.0% | $27.73 | -81% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 7.6% | $30.82 | -79% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 7.3% | $32.24 | -80% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 11.1% | $41.23 | -76% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 14.1% | $32.80 | -75% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AEPABBI FEDE | 2.5-1 | 1.8-1 | 85.1 | 18% | 50% | ▼-23% |
| 1 | APMOUNT HOREB | 3.5-1 | 3.5-1 | 84.8 | 16% | 45% | ▼-11% |
| 7 | BPRAPOPORT | 10-1 | 7.6-1 | 83.9 | 15% | 44% | ▲+21% |
| 4 | BPALSTON | 6.0-1 | 5.1-1 | 80.2 | 12% | 38% | ·+1% |
| 8 | BESICILIAN DEFENSE | 8.0-1 | 7.5-1 | 78.7 | 12% | 36% | ▲+8% |
| 5 | CPGORDON'S LEGACY | 12-1 | 12-1 | 78.7 | 11% | 34% | ▲+14% |
| 6 | CSSURVIVIN'ONAPRAYER | 30-1 | 37-1 | 77.8 | 8% | 26% | ▲+18% |
| 2 | EROCKY JOY | 8.0-1 | 12-1 | 76.6 | 8% | 26% | ·-2% |
| 9 | SCRPSKETCH | 4.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Fri, May 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.