John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 2

ARISTOTLE

G '22 · TAPIT × LAKE NAIVASHA

Trainer: CASSE MARK · Jockey: ORTIZ JOSE L

Today's prediction

86.9

Speed fig

40.6%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +4.16
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.30
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.85
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.72
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.60

Pushing prediction down

  • Days Since Last Race -0.47
  • Starts Last 180d -0.28
  • Num Career Starts -0.21
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.16
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Max -0.14

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2025-12-20 TP 1m Dirt 1 0.1 87 95 Ins;7p3/16;bid;dueled
2025-11-15 WO 1.06m Dirt 2 1.5 88 93 Angled 6w; gaining
2025-10-25 WO 1.06m Dirt 3 2.5 88 93 Brk in;kept coming on
2025-10-05 WO 1.06m Dirt 1 1.3 83 85 Pounce4W3/16;held sway
2025-09-14 WO 1.06m Dirt 3 1.8 83 84 Got out1st;led1/8;fade
2025-08-03 WO 1m Turf 11 18.0 62 91 Outside;forced 7w 9/16
2025-07-06 WO 6.5f Turf 5 5.8 77 88 Finished with intent
2024-09-07 CNL 1.06m Turf 2 0.1 80 78 Rally 5w;closed;denied
2024-07-20 GP 7.5f Turf 2 1.0 71 79 2wd bid; led; outkickd
2024-06-07 GP 5f Turf 5 7.5 72 78 Inside turn;angld;even