Fri, May 29
Race 2
Md Sp Wt
Post: 1:14 · 1.13m · Dirt · $120K purse · 9 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 9 of 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #1 TAP TO OPEN (EP, QSP 4)
- #7 LADY LAW (EP, QSP 4)
- #5 TWINKLEE (E, QSP 3)
- #2 PERRYLU (E, QSP 3)
1 of 9 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 1, 3, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$16.82
mean $22.94
Expected ROI
-87.1%
net $-5.22
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1, 3, 4] — hits 3.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $17 (mean $23; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
3, 4, 7
C Value-edge longshots
2, 9
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 3.2% | $12.92 | -91% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 5.9% | $13.87 | -87% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 5.8% | $13.87 | -87% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 5.9% | $13.87 | -90% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 8.8% | $16.90 | -85% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEPTAP TO OPEN | 1.2-1 | 0.9-1 | ↓0.8-1 | 82.2 | 18% | 50% | ▼-50% |
| 3 | BSATI GIRL | 4.0-1 | 3.3-1 | ↓2.0-1 | 80.2 | 16% | 44% | ▼-41% |
| 4 | BSMAGIC WOMAN | 6.0-1 | 7.1-1 | ↑12-1 | 78.5 | 12% | 37% | ▲+17% |
| 7 | BEPLADY LAW | 6.0-1 | 6.4-1 | ↑8.0-1 | 77.8 | 11% | 33% | ▲+5% |
| 9 | CPEPISIST | 12-1 | 15-1 | ↑21-1 | 76.7 | 10% | 32% | ▲+20% |
| 5 | ETWINKLEE | 15-1 | 16-1 | ·16-1 | 76.7 | 9% | 29% | ▲+14% |
| 2 | CEPERRYLU | 20-1 | 25-1 | ↑31-1 | 75.6 | 9% | 29% | ▲+21% |
| 8 | SCHARTED DESTINY | 20-1 | 27-1 | ↑46-1 | 74.3 | 8% | 25% | ▲+20% |
| 6 | ALESIAMAE | 8.0-1 | 8.6-1 | ↑16-1 | 69.0 | 6% | 20% | ▲+5% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Fri, May 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.