Fri, May 29
Race 1
Alw 127000n1x
Post: 12:45 · 6.5f · Dirt · $127K purse · 7 runners · LIVE Trifecta math uses live odds for 7 of 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersHot pace
6 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #1 TRUE PASSION (EP, QSP 7)
- #6 TIZ IN SIGHT (E, QSP 7)
- #7 BRILAND (EP, QSP 4)
- #3 OUTRAGEOUSLY (EP, QSP 4)
- #4 TETIAROA (EP, QSP 3)
- #2 MAZOKU (EP, QSP 1)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 1, 6, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
6.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$37.58
mean $36.35
Expected ROI
-59.5%
net $-3.57
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1, 6, 4] — hits 6.7% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $38 (mean $36; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
6, 4, 7
C Value-edge longshots
2, 5
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 6.2% | $17.25 | -72% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 11.8% | $28.30 | -62% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 10.3% | $28.30 | -64% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 10.7% | $28.30 | -65% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 20.0% | $39.62 | -52% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Live | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEPTRUE PASSION | 2.0-1 | 2.5-1 | ·2.0-1 | 85.8 | 21% | 57% | ▼-28% |
| 6 | BETIZ IN SIGHT | 6.0-1 | 7.1-1 | ↑8.0-1 | 81.5 | 17% | 50% | ▲+22% |
| 4 | BEPTETIAROA | 4.0-1 | 4.7-1 | ↓1.8-1 | 81.3 | 16% | 48% | ▼-43% |
| 7 | BEPBRILAND | 2.5-1 | 2.5-1 | ↑3.5-1 | 77.9 | 14% | 43% | ▼-13% |
| 5 | CSGOING STEADY | 10-1 | 13-1 | ·11-1 | 80.0 | 12% | 37% | ▲+16% |
| 3 | EPOUTRAGEOUSLY | 4.5-1 | 7.7-1 | ·5.0-1 | 79.1 | 11% | 35% | ▼-8% |
| 2 | CEPMAZOKU | 20-1 | 34-1 | ↑30-1 | 74.2 | 9% | 30% | ▲+22% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. Live column: ↓ green = ≥25% shorter than ML (money horse); ↑ red = ≥25% longer (drifting). See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Fri, May 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.