John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R5

PP 10

PROTECTIVE

G '21 · MEDAGLIA D'ORO × GRACE HALL

Trainer: HOWARD MARY ANNE · Jockey: CURTIS BEN

Today's prediction

79.6

Speed fig

35.5%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.90
  • BRIS Prime Power +0.89
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.84
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.51
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.20

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Post Position -0.43
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.20
  • Weight Change From Last -0.13
  • Last Speed Fig -0.12
  • Today Field Size -0.11

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-18 KEE 1.06m Dirt 5 13.3 73 91 3p btwn; no threat
2026-04-03 KEE 1.13m Turf 9 8.3 76 90 Prss 2w;vie btw;wkn1/4
2026-03-21 TP 1m Dirt 2 4.0 89 92 Bid4-3p;repel;duel plc
2026-01-17 TP 1.06m Dirt 2 2.0 83 87 3-4w;bid 3w;bestd;game
2025-11-20 CD 1m Dirt 4 6.3 77 89 4p;vied;outkckd;kpt on
2025-10-31 CD 1.06m Dirt 1 2.8 85 86 Stalk 3p;bid1/4;drwoff
2025-08-31 SAR 1m Dirt 5 12.5 80 95 Bmp st;3-2p trns;empty
2025-01-05 GP 1.50m Turf 7 3.8 97 92 Stalked3p;1paced lane
2024-10-25 KEE 1.19m Turf 4 4.8 84 91 Ins;5p2nd;8pupr;belatd
2024-09-21 PRX 1.13m Dirt 10 12.8 84 103 2p;ins turn; no threat