John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R5

PP 4

JUST A FAIR SHAKE

C '22 · LAOBAN × LADYMIDTOWN

Trainer: ROMANS DALE · Jockey: GARCIA MARTIN

Today's prediction

81.2

Speed fig

36.1%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +4.70
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.35
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.96
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 +0.43
  • Speed Fig Consistency +0.28

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -1.32
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.64
  • Last Finish Pos -0.44
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 -0.26
  • Num Career Starts -0.25

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-20 TP 1.06m Dirt 12 28.0 57 92 Close up 3pbtw;fade2nd
2026-03-06 TP 1m Dirt 4 8.0 83 92 2w;chsd 3-2p2nd;no bid
2025-11-30 CD 1.13m Turf 12 40.3 38 92 Stalk 3p;wknd btw 5/16
2025-10-30 CD 1m Dirt 5 3.8 84 91 2w btw;4-6p upr;mildly
2025-09-28 CD 1.06m Turf 6 9.5 72 2-3w;5p upr;gave way
2025-09-06 CNL 1.13m Turf 6 5.8 77 91 Ins;shuffled;angld out
2025-08-22 CT 7f Dirt 4 5.3 82 94 Bump st;4p1/4;7p lane
2025-08-03 MNR 1.13m Dirt 4 5.5 89 97 Loomed turn; weakened;
2025-06-14 MTH 1.06m Dirt 5 9.0 86 93 3w trip; weakened
2025-05-17 PIM 1.06m Dirt 2 7.5 84 91 5wd from 3/8;willingly