Sun, May 24
Race 1
Md 12500
Post: 12:45 · 6f · Dirt · $35K purse · 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #1 HOT GAMER (E, QSP 6)
- #7 BERLINWIN (E, QSP 3)
- #2 DODECAHEDRON (EP, QSP 3)
3 of 9 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
5-horse box on posts 1, 7, 5, 2, 9
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$60.00
60 combos
Hit prob
31.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$152.38
mean $348.58
Expected ROI
+84.4%
net $50.63
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 5-horse box on posts [1, 7, 5, 2, 9] — hits 31.7% of simulated runs
- · At $60 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $152 (mean $349; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1, 7
B Contenders
5, 2, 9
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-horse box | $120.00 | 50.9% | $129.17 | +29% |
| 3×5×5 part wheel | $36.00 | 22.9% | $140.73 | +63% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 16.3% | $140.73 | +54% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 17.7% | $140.73 | +34% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 10.1% | $132.35 | +19% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEHOT GAMER | 2.0-1 | 1.7-1 | 66.9 | 20% | 56% | ▼-29% |
| 7 | AEBERLINWIN | 10-1 | 8.6-1 | 67.5 | 19% | 53% | ▲+30% |
| 5 | BSGLADLY | 8.0-1 | 8.6-1 | 68.3 | 16% | 46% | ▲+18% |
| 2 | BEPDODECAHEDRON | 12-1 | 18-1 | 63.5 | 10% | 32% | ▲+12% |
| 9 | BLIL BRAVEHEART | 20-1 | 40-1 | 59.6 | 9% | 29% | ▲+17% |
| 6 | PWARM UP THE BUS | 6.0-1 | 7.9-1 | 61.7 | 9% | 29% | ▼-8% |
| 3 | STOTAL FABRICATION | 4.5-1 | 6.6-1 | 58.7 | 8% | 25% | ▼-21% |
| 4 | SWEETBITTERS | 3.5-1 | 3.7-1 | 50.0 | 5% | 17% | ▼-40% |
| 8 | MOTOWN SOUND | 15-1 | 32-1 | 52.2 | 4% | 14% | ·-2% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Sun, May 24 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.