John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 6

WARM UP THE BUS

F '23 · UPSTART × JAMICHE

Trainer: TOMLINSON MICHAEL A · Jockey: SHEEHY DANNY

Today's prediction

61.7

Speed fig

28.8%

In-the-money

Last 7 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Today Track Code +0.33
  • Weight Change From Last +0.21
  • Distance Change From Last +0.21
  • Mean Speed Fig Career +0.16
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 +0.15

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -8.35
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -1.58
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -1.21
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.05
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.99

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-02-18 TP 6f Dirt 7 9.5 49 70 4-7p; no menace
2026-01-08 TP 6f Dirt 9 14.0 56 74 Tracked 4wd; faded
2025-11-22 CD 6.5f Dirt 7 12.8 60 76 Step slw;4p;drft 7p1/8
2025-11-01 CD 6f Dirt 7 12.3 65 78 Tight;3wbtw;6p1/4;tire
2025-10-05 KEE 6.5f Dirt 3 2.5 70 78 Ins;pause;5p upr;chase
2025-09-01 TIM 4f Dirt 2 3.0 66 73 Angled 1/4;4wd run
2025-08-22 TIM 4f Dirt 7 9.5 51 74 Slow start;rail turn