John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 3

TOTAL FABRICATION

F '23 · NOT THIS TIME × WISE STRIKE

Trainer: MOQUETT RONALD E · Jockey: ASMUSSEN KEITH J

Today's prediction

58.7

Speed fig

25.2%

In-the-money

Last 3 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Today Track Code +0.57
  • Mean Btn Lengths Last 5 +0.37
  • BRIS Turf Pedigree +0.24
  • Run Style S +0.22
  • Class Par Trend +0.21

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -11.77
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -2.13
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -2.07
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -1.57
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -1.12

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-16 OP 6f Dirt 3 3.3 64 71 Ins turn;4p1/16;kpt on
2025-10-22 PID 6f Dirt 8 19.3 39 65 No threat;
2025-09-23 IND 1.04m Dirt 7 123.8 67 Through early;distancd