John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 7

BERLINWIN

F '23 · PRACTICAL JOKE × AUNT SALLY

Trainer: ESPOSITO CHRISTI LYNN · Jockey: WEATHERLY BAILEY

Today's prediction

67.5

Speed fig

53.1%

In-the-money

Last 7 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Turf Pedigree +0.29
  • Today Track Code +0.26
  • BRIS Mud Pedigree +0.22
  • Weight Change From Last +0.20
  • Num Career Starts +0.16

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -4.48
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -1.24
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.93
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.90
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.67

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-13 TP 6.5f Dirt 2 1.0 69 70 Stalked 3-4p;slow gain
2026-02-26 TP 6.5f Dirt 5 7.3 63 72 Stalk 3w;btw;gave way
2026-01-17 TP 6f Dirt 69 Stumbled st;lost rider
2026-01-01 TP 1m Dirt 5 14.3 60 75 3-4w;bid3/8;vied;yield
2025-11-26 CD 1m Dirt 4 6.8 64 73 Chsd ins;6p upr;no bid
2025-11-07 CD 7f Dirt 2 7.0 69 73 Press ins-3p; edge plc
2025-10-05 KEE 6f Dirt 7 15.0 63 86 Bumped/step slow st;4p